MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c04433ad1c117eb09f608bb38036f86b1b9dd67165d67c2a382ac22be816ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 6,188$3,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,786.88 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 5,934$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 3,197$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.21 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 1,996$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.53 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 1,359$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.13 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 1,128$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 995.91$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…a73abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 880.74$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.25 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 701$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 524.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 500$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.59 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 451$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.92 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 409.57$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.5 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 381$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 9c | 330$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Tampa Bay Rays | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 272.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 256.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 208.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 203.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 202.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 191.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 175.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 175.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 17c | 167.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 127.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 123.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 116.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 115.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 108$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 96.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 94.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 74.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 62.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 57.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 57.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 49.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 41.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 37.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 21.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…460fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.