Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15909f61199742d67ea807f757208e9a637db45fb70051774d452a5461419587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 77c | 255.96$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 204.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 194.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 173.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 33c | 150.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 78c | 134.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 122.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 36c | 121.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 116.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 112.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 54c | 112.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 102.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 64c | 94.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 23c | 90.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 87.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 81.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 71c | 69.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 67.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 31c | 65.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 65c | 59.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 64c | 46.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 65c | 44.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 31c | 43.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 43.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 34c | 43.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 42.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 35.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 50c | 30.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 76c | 29.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 22.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.