Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051d73c887025a58a0d0b86c474cd340af2d4e7d44064cb0e51656bb07250b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,161$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 8c | 899.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 795.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 22c | 794.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 5c | 457.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 341.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed No | 79c | 322.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 25c | 278.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 263.07$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 235.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 225.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 15c | 224.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 205.55$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 23c | 199.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 182.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 20c | 158.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 21c | 132.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 121.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 103.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 15c | 102.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 101.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 96.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 31c | 86.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 26c | 78.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 75.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 23c | 73.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 62.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 30c | 61.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 30c | 59.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 46.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 68c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 37.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 34.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 75c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 77c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 76c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 77c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 77c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 76c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.