Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4bb5248232f48cb52398403bb19c7080ce0cb958000d39266a372f0bd26269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 537.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 70c | 248.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 40c | 221.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 201 | 27.4%55 W · 146 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 184.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 160.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 64c | 155.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 154.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 53c | 94.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 74.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 36c | 70.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 24c | 61.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 36c | 56.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 52.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 33c | 49.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 33c | 48.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed No | 67c | 44.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 64c | 41.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 58c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 31c | 35.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 37c | 30.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 66c | 23.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…baf6backed No | 66c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.