NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15929d1cf8c39294e38b003f6e4b7435a4bfac2167c4f5cdce64b54d0c7bedb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Devils, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Devils | 36c | 7,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.99 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Kraken | 64c | 4,531$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Kraken | 64c | 2,078$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.08 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Kraken | 62c | 1,194$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.7 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Kraken | 64c | 1,023$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.43 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…6067backed Devils | 36c | 960$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Devils | 38c | 865.99$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kraken | 63c | 756.82$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.02 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Devils | 37c | 641.2$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.24 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Devils | 36c | 570.86$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7a…7565backed Kraken | 64c | 380$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Kraken | 65c | 369.23$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Devils | 35c | 367.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kraken | 64c | 328.13$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Devils | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61b…a5b7backed Kraken | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Devils | 36c | 288$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…4ce5backed Kraken | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Devils | 36c | 252.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Kraken | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Devils | 37c | 235.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Devils | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Devils | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kraken | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kraken | 64c | 102.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Devils | 37c | 102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Kraken | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Kraken | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kraken | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Devils | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Kraken | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kraken | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Devils | 37c | 34.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…2d71backed Kraken | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kraken | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…e608backed Kraken | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Kraken | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. DevilsDevils won
- Kraken vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.