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Champions League · resolved market

Will Fenerbahce qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,896 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb893…35d6backed No48c1,652$788 inLost-$787.690%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22a9…97babacked Yes48c416.67$200 inWon+$216.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes49c400$196 inWon+$2041258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4827…080dbacked Yes78c307.35$241 inWon+$66.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes48c296.45$142 inWon+$154.646160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes35c222.86$77 inWon+$145.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e6…c078backed No53c188.22$100 inLost-$99.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+46.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes52c161$84 inWon+$77.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes48c137.85$67 inWon+$71.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+44.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf870…99e6backed Yes47c128.22$60 inWon+$67.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b4…a549backed Yes53c82.55$44 inWon+$38.55425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c66.25$32 inWon+$33.858360.2%50 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes51c50$26 inWon+$24.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c46.99$21 inLost-$20.882040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes52c38$20 inWon+$18.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed Yes52c32$17 inWon+$15.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes49c30$15 inWon+$15.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes51c28$14 inWon+$13.72825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+592.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9247…02fbbacked Yes56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.791040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.