NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b1135ebd2414599de8fff894b2eac5373044bed19e4a9fd9f66f1b8aa185b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 15,158$8,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155.96 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 9,767$4,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590.65 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Under | 48c | 1,147$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.09 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Over | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,017$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 590.39$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.09 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 435.7$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 52c | 423.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.17 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 417.27$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 51c | 329.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 51c | 273.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 7c | 240.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 63.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 48c | 45.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 65c | 29.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…347bbacked Over | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…69e9backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…1dddbacked Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…14efbacked Over | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…d366backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 57c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 52c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. JetsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.