CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d0e5139105993fee185a6340d16f7b6f541338b3fb7d3556dfbc082f06f928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keydof Keyd, Isurus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Isurus | 35c | 280.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 2,137 | 42%897 W · 1,240 L | -48.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Isurus | 39c | 254.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 388 | 41.8%162 W · 226 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Keyd | 70c | 208.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Keyd | 62c | 108.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 564 | 48.2%272 W · 292 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Isurus | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,995 | 47.5%948 W · 1,047 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Isurus | 20c | 65.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5,183 | 37.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L | -274.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…783cbacked Keyd | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed Keyd | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 517 | 56.3%291 W · 226 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…e04fbacked Keyd | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Isurus | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed Keyd | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 505 | 64.8%327 W · 178 L | +59.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Isurus | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,279 | 54.3%694 W · 585 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #1 PlayoffsIsurus won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus - Map 2 WinnerIsurus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.