Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e66f10ffa2bd1d7da5eb98a1ef02808fba6fdf0abb7e60e808049afa855988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 8,637$6,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.37 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 4,665$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 26c | 3,168$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.63 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 1,918$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.61 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,251$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.13 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 62c | 1,134$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.58 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 26c | 1,062$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 886.69$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.53 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 27c | 570.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…8759backed Yes | 38c | 500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 481.42$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 417.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 245.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…1478backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 26c | 146.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked No | 75c | 113.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 107.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 107.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 74c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 29c | 91.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes | 26c | 85.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d2…a62dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked No | 75c | 65.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…00f6backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 30c | 51.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 26c | 49.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 29c | 44.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Yes | 30c | 44.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 43c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 74c | 30.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 73c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 65c | 16.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-24?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.