Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ea6c643ec9f2dda403dfec972c39e4567d7e3421ace83de4217fcc6879224b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Khachanovof Khachanov, Gea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Khachanov | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Gea | 30c | 1,012$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Gea | 35c | 858.96$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.95 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Khachanov | 65c | 772.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.31 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Khachanov | 70c | 640.78$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.46 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gea | 30c | 383.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Gea | 28c | 316$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Khachanov | 72c | 316$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Gea | 27c | 256$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Gea | 36c | 252.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Gea | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Gea | 31c | 177.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…cb4fbacked Khachanov | 67c | 149.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Khachanov | 65c | 101.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Khachanov | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Gea | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Gea | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Khachanov | 69c | 95.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…e559backed Khachanov | 69c | 92.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gea | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Khachanov | 65c | 67.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Gea | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Gea | 35c | 53.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed Khachanov | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Khachanov | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gea | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Gea | 36c | 33.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Khachanov | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5)this page
- Karen Khachanov vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Karen Khachanov vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Khachanov vs. Gea: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur GeaKaren Khachanov won
- Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs GeaKhachanov won
- Set Handicap: Khachanov (-2.5) vs Gea (+2.5)Khachanov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.