Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x160d4b09c5e8fd83a50c65c55ff06922677307cb125bcf7ec88adfb1f8127334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 385.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 352.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 325.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 29c | 306.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.28 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 235.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 188.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 129.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 116.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 114.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 50c | 112.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 87.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 82.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 76.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 75.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 75.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 66.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 30c | 58.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 66c | 57.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 24c | 56.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…f528backed Yes | 34c | 54.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 28c | 48.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 74c | 45.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 33c | 43.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 41.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 68c | 36.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 35.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 31.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 26.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 73c | 23.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 21.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 60c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 74c | 19.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 72c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.