Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52dd52964ea1f1a3278bcee91f7c89ddde514d4a053d024c6f2acc74eaad950e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 383.4$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 32c | 312.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 235.94$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 52c | 188.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 173.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 171.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 163.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 102.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 94.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 65c | 88.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 38c | 72.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 64.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 35c | 63.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 29c | 55.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 52.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 52c | 49.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 49.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 47.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 45.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 44.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 41.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 28c | 36.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 65c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 41c | 32.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 35c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 55c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 73c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…befdbacked Yes | 54c | 24.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 72c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed No | 65c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 21.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 66c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.