Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x160eb14ddedb40369018c687e9194791985c177a03e031235224b7ae889355ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 875.42$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 472.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 61c | 455.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 69c | 360.72$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 290.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 265.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 259$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 230.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 205.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 67c | 177.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 177$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 175.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 39c | 155.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 154$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 59c | 148.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 127.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 123.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 120.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 107.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 63c | 101.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 38c | 92.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 84.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 78.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 77.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa368…1b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed No | 65c | 67.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 43c | 57.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 54.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 49.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 35.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 31c | 35.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 44c | 32.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 79c | 31.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 74c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…b528backed Yes | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 60c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 61c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 65c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.