Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8c1feffd4d4f2eb43829186c1f3d51e9d3c87452ab2576a9f662651f49247c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 916.1$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.31 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 315.02$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 310.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 291.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.07 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 202$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 201$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 179.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 142.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 8c | 139.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 138.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 10c | 119.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 115.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 108.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 103.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 102.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 78c | 94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 78c | 93.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 17c | 89.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 75.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 49.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 36.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 33.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 32.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 78c | 32.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 70c | 30.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 26.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 13.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.