Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb3c52dc105f46b53c5b4dd4bbd30c5d1cdb3a95d64c0166a1574d5f99fe143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 11c | 2,202$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…1e17backed Yes | 46c | 1,049$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 384.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 344.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 290$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 273.71$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 234.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 220.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 171.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 147.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 142.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 127.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 119.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 117.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 107.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 105.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 104.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 56c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 58c | 77.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 68.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 50c | 68.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 50c | 56.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 42c | 48.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 44.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 34c | 42.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 63c | 35.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 26.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 25.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 25.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 25.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257a…5d9bbacked No | 59c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 60c | 18.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.