South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162d9ebfb3a8e4925785a98c488a168787e68cf45455600e187149bb01629fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 38c | 7,140$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 62c | 6,297$3,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 736.83$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 62c | 702.11$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 482$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 11c | 475.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 61c | 328.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 38c | 292$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 37c | 242.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 62c | 209.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 65c | 155.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 28c | 151.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 39c | 149.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…3b7bbacked Yes | 61c | 126.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 28c | 109.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 36c | 102.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…a1bfbacked Yes | 63c | 74.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 35c | 71.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…fdf3backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…c215backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…49eebacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 40c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…cd3abacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Yes | 51c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…f561backed Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…8b15backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-29?this page
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.