Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves vs. Southampton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1669a3c3e2f9b20a5bbcabc6ed27f2e590c56072c1d6dfa410d886ad2ebc104e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36b6…61c0backed Yes | 0c | 4,241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 74c | 4,024$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 26c | 3,885$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 74c | 528.61$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 75c | 437.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffa…8be3backed Yes | 26c | 386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 74c | 257.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 71c | 253.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 23c | 150.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…e864backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…45d5backed Yes | 26c | 76.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…84d9backed No | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…6632backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 72cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…a7cfbacked Yes | 29c | 63.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…9beabacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 74c | 23.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves vs. Southampton end in a draw?this page
- Will Southampton win on 2024-11-09?No won
- Will Wolves win on 2024-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.