Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168f1fbde67b9402e39b61a7ceb15898418b348498b887b5d844075b98cbf6d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 940.61$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 330.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 17c | 302.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 291.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 269.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 14c | 249.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 18c | 239.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…9b7ebacked Yes | 11c | 178.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 80c | 154.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 19c | 153.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 142.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 11c | 135.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 115.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 114.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 16c | 112.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 20c | 90.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 87.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 17c | 84.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 26c | 81.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 81.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 19c | 78.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 77c | 77.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 74.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 71.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 55.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 28c | 36.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…fff3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked No | 80c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.