Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ea509e1ac7024ae59e15d8f0fda96fc7c1071d7caacba37fc8d89d89f777288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 290.92$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 30c | 287.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.56 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 274$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 264.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 262.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 36c | 250.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 212.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 41c | 205.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 174.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 9c | 165.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 146.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 142.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 139.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 137.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 133.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 130.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 128.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 120.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 14c | 119.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 119.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 111.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 104.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…7d4dbacked No | 59c | 102.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 65c | 99.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 33c | 94.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 87.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 29c | 83.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…295ebacked Yes | 47c | 83.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 17c | 81.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 70.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 71c | 67.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 38c | 59.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 46c | 54.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 44c | 53.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 53.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 68c | 53.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 24c | 50.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bb…206ebacked No | 54c | 45.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…b6e5backed Yes | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…8b9abacked No | 53c | 43.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 28c | 41.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 40.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 40.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 40c | 38.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 38.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…3dd3backed Yes | 50c | 37.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 36.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 34c | 36.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 49c | 27.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 23.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 66c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…6327backed No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…9b2dbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…3913backed Yes | 58c | 17.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.