Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed3afcc50888e75e698c33745d412a01ec49462be7c71d7f92d9a13761cc54d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 344.77$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 31c | 323.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 316.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6066…b516backed Yes | 32c | 312.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 289.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.07 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 263.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 72c | 256$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 35c | 249.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 25c | 223.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 26c | 222.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 211.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…2d56backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 189.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 181.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 180.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 18c | 170.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 74c | 144.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 37c | 123.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 115.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 17c | 99.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 99.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 30c | 97.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 60c | 91.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 89.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 88.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 86.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…8047backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 80.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 66.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…295ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 23c | 58.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 28c | 57.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 57.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…db66backed Yes | 79c | 48.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 47.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 36c | 45.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 44.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 39.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 38.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 38.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 37.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 39c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 31.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…249dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 71c | 30.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 54c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 23.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 69c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 68c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 77c | 13.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.