Movies · resolved market
Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b0d5206a4a5c29557e3e68df16e522b66839840f286e164b6c136ca801e6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,590$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.9 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 10c | 1,332$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.99 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 913.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,427.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 18c | 900.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 80c | 870.89$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 20c | 777$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 776.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.04 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…64ecbacked Yes | 10c | 759.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 18c | 546.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 13c | 515$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.03 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 9c | 461.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…403cbacked Yes | 11c | 413.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9579backed Yes | 10c | 362.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.75 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.9 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 271.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.69 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 8c | 265$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 16c | 245.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 200.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 10c | 196.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 11c | 157$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 15c | 136.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 11c | 134.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…0016backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 78c | 26.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f6…d17dbacked Yes | 61c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?this page
- Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Kate Winslet win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Nicole Kidman win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Pamela Anderson win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Tilda Swinton win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.