TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes10c1,590$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.9429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes10c1,332$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.998334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes7c913.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,427.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed Yes18c900.53$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.53812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes80c870.89$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.022171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No20c777$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.45437%20 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes6c776.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.0418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf365…64ecbacked Yes10c759.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+94.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…ae55backed Yes18c546.59$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.862133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes13c515$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.035745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed Yes9c461.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.462227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x647b…403cbacked Yes11c413.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+124.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6b…9579backed Yes10c362.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.98520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes6c350$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.7510232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes9c300$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.95532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c271.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes8c265$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.11631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes4c250$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2392433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Yes16c245.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.542437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes11c200.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0818444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16419836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Yes16c200$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.97977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick38cpaid+152.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa561…13a2backed Yes10c196.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.042321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed Yes11c157$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+340%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514f…7bb7backed Yes15c136.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+128.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes11c134.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.022544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9015739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…83edbacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+144.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bd3…0016backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No78c26.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.781618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f6…d17dbacked Yes61c26.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9f…0cdfbacked No66c21.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.