Movies · resolved market
Will Nicole Kidman win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7031a7f65a72585b0951f0c8f4d0d18b9f6ff8e95e51df4898b9aed356bc74bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 33c | 2,226$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 25c | 1,738$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.38 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…d2e4backed Yes | 33c | 1,272$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 24c | 1,187$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.82 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.48 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 635$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 30c | 619.23$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 26c | 520$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 418.58$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…6130backed Yes | 22c | 350$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 24c | 295.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 261.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 27c | 229.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 74c | 216.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 45c | 210$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 26c | 202.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 46c | 199$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 24c | 185.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 176$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…c854backed No | 73c | 165$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 22c | 127$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…1994backed Yes | 26c | 122.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…8c37backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 18c | 109.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 29c | 105.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…6e06backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Yes | 54c | 93.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 28c | 89.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…75fabacked Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…ac84backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 68.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed No | 75c | 63.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 27c | 55.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…b822backed Yes | 30c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 76c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicole Kidman win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?this page
- Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Fernanda Torres win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?Yes won
- Will Kate Winslet win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Pamela Anderson win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
- Will Tilda Swinton win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.