Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16bb6c2ca01709211c6f0a60aba2e65a2f96b4729c191baee4b26356cd1d467f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 3,694$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 3,607$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.31 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 2,415$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.24 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.64 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 17c | 1,729$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.7 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,725$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.17 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 1,603$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.34 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,258$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.87 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,251$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.93 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 1,094$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.18 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 1,014$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.59 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 715.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 488.82$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 419.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…8e71backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 363.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 350.43$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…96eabacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 266.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…3ef3backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 230.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 227.39$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…eb57backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 197.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 189.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 119.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 110.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 106.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 100.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 99.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 95.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 88.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 83.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 76.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 72.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 67.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 61.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 55.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…237abacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…0574backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 26.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…18fdbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5701…e344backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8427backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…9659backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedef…4ee4backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.