Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640e93f2335f137a25ea0a0194167f06f0a7848b779f61fe453571f73f457e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 36,436$19,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,275.81 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 30,000$14,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,192.27 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,359.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 6,147$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 5,262$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.83 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 4,416$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 4,269$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,861$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.06 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,750$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.1 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 1,480$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,242$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.61 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 1,014$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 839.49$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.78 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 711.72$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 666$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 647.87$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 441.05$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 401.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 339.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 335.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 330.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 275$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 255$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 246.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 245.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 215.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 192.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 172.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 144.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 129.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 122.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 105.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…a4a0backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…ed23backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…4134backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 97.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 94.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 92.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 78.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 71.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 61.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 54.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 53.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Tundra Esports | 74c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 46.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…5ecdbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 44.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…8a4bbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…e9d9backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…e3c8backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…5c35backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.