TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports50c20,306$10,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,113.3555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere47c7,927$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.8620949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Natus Vincere54c7,480$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.0633746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere47c6,260$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.41,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports54c5,530$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.0142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere48c5,001$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.111,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Tundra Esports51c4,181$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.7417546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere47c4,180$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.4266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere45c4,000$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.91,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere41c3,173$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere47c2,238$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.112,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports55c1,994$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.5854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Tundra Esports51c1,952$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.6711359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Tundra Esports53c1,882$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3747660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Natus Vincere56c1,680$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Natus Vincere45c1,644$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.382669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.999557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere49c1,483$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.8936851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports51c1,246$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.622,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere45c1,237$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.6558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Tundra Esports58c1,149$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.0653844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Tundra Esports59c1,127$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.25949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports54c1,116$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.7113455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports50c994.23$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.321,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere45c899.15$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.721,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Tundra Esports55c730$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Natus Vincere9c700$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6125639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Tundra Esports49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.249053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d2…1b03backed Tundra Esports47c611.52$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.04875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29456848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Tundra Esports55c573.67$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.568461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere49c504$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.9634443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Natus Vincere42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Tundra Esports66c456.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Tundra Esports54c400.39$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.1829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Tundra Esports71c396.94$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.841,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Tundra Esports52c365.74$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Tundra Esports59c319.66$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0643647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Tundra Esports74c300.47$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed Tundra Esports58c286.21$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.214461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Natus Vincere45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Tundra Esports53c211$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Natus Vincere49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports53c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9528244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Tundra Esports52c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1118952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Tundra Esports51c181$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4614453.5%77 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports58c160$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.299844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere45c149.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.534154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefff…2d98backed Tundra Esports58c138.88$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3316445.7%75 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked Natus Vincere49c118.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.187424.3%18 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed Tundra Esports56c116.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.076944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere48c111$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.285550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Tundra Esports49c107.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Tundra Esports50c104.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2722954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Natus Vincere49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cec…4134backed Natus Vincere50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Natus Vincere39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.29430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Tundra Esports55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Tundra Esports55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4553757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4345052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Tundra Esports55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4256243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Natus Vincere54c96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6736051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Tundra Esports56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2959556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Tundra Esports56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.299548.4%46 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Natus Vincere47c88.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7129245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports57c88.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2834152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Natus Vincere17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18fe…a4a0backed Natus Vincere57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506450%32 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere49c84.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5513238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.68636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Tundra Esports40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4540047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d2…83b3backed Tundra Esports55c72.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5911563.5%73 W · 42 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports46c71.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe866…1a70backed Tundra Esports58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.511057.3%63 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed Tundra Esports49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.224540%18 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports49c55.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed Tundra Esports58c51.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9231659.8%189 W · 127 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec46…072dbacked Natus Vincere49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Tundra Esports52c46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0833645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Natus Vincere46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Natus Vincere54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.466848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Tundra Esports46c39.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5779343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Tundra Esports51c39.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3512449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209f…0eb4backed Tundra Esports51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.223348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere42c37.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Tundra Esports55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.366844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a2…dc15backed Natus Vincere47c34.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b08…19fdbacked Tundra Esports55c26.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Tundra Esports58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8621062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4287…3d5ebacked Natus Vincere47c25.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.878342.2%35 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Tundra Esports53c22.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.616854.4%37 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Tundra Esports56c20.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8626957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Tundra Esports50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1047951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Natus Vincere55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.