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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde72…c1debacked No68c720$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+101.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No13c610.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.098410.7%9 W · 75 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-55.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes31c609.78$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.1949338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0de4…2d29backed Yes42c564$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.322737%10 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3622…af32backed No27c445$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x622f…e730backed Yes24c424.85$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.318640.3%75 W · 111 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No56c400$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22224710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e98…0009backed No73c365$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb94d…4402backed Yes27c360$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x663e…5916backed Yes32c285$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+94.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5845…1c4ebacked Yes73c275$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes65c263.95$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.995328.3%15 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e7…9acdbacked Yes31c250$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb962…6985backed No27c240$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb8…a9d1backed Yes32c240$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes49c229.55$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.861,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c56…7a5fbacked Yes27c217$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+155.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe151…d3c4backed No68c205$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed Yes70c199.17$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1795942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d06…d484backed Yes32c165$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6722…90fdbacked Yes32c160$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c87…64f8backed No27c160$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64fc…6815backed No68c155$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0641…1985backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5631.6%1 W · 62 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb134…3e8abacked Yes32c135$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x957c…dc88backed Yes73c135$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7716…316abacked No68c130$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e92…77d2backed Yes31c130$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x165d…8ba2backed No73c130$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0833…bee5backed Yes73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a8…918fbacked No73c130$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…2842backed Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45ba…e172backed Yes32c120$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa793…e8babacked Yes32c115$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes27c112.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.249523.2%22 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ad…7a9bbacked Yes31c110$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+353.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x014e…61aabacked Yes27c105$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0713…a21bbacked Yes32c105$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes33c100.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.091,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6584930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0f…7b8abacked No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked No64c95.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.514654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c2…3888backed No69c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4540…d61abacked Yes73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700b…db88backed Yes73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86d…ac82backed No58c86.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80c9…118bbacked No68c85$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb5…c074backed Yes73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…cb9cbacked No68c80$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked Yes34c73.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3760033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2563…f528backed No73c70$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081b…dac7backed Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.84763.8%30 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc1…ba14backed No70c66.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-54.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaecc…1f6ebacked No73c65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92c…47e9backed No69c65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd6…a4b9backed Yes32c65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd2…f20ebacked No73c65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c61.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9138243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6072…fb46backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3674…faedbacked No73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b2…cb39backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8660…fad0backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb7…01f3backed Yes32c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x886d…8b31backed No27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2520556.1%115 W · 90 L+25.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4acb…9323backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c0…c408backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d5b…35e8backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eaa…753ebacked Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes26c49.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.994938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9ec…6491backed No55c49.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.492254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+50.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes31c45.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1921350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…3cddbacked No27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd2…a46fbacked No68c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No69c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.46867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeac…bd3cbacked Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287450%37 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f35…81abbacked No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes33c38.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.855125.5%13 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c8e…0824backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecd…0486backed Yes73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197e…0c86backed No73c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x561e…fbe9backed No69c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ca…8617backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…fb43backed Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bae…d5e8backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fd…3581backed No69c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…a692backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes53c34.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e23…ac50backed Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb1…763fbacked No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd33…f625backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbabd…8235backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db4…d97fbacked Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bc…70eebacked Yes59c28.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes43c25.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2332133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4128…5165backed No69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…1bffbacked No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd79c…bba0backed No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.