Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c6950f6812ae3a1de3a9a4f66ce781e865ee92bebffa27ea8ba348a1f974dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf15…0399backed Yes | 7c | 920$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed Yes | 52c | 569.78$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 451.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed No | 66c | 420$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked No | 69c | 385$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 60c | 380.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 65c | 316.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…cbacbacked Yes | 34c | 305$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…9d13backed Yes | 34c | 290$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 26c | 237.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…a1bfbacked No | 66c | 210$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +309.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked Yes | 31c | 185$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 71c | 161.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…4490backed Yes | 31c | 155$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…abbabacked Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f8…9139backed Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 47c | 117.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…5fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…5408backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe600…4da3backed No | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 60c | 95.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eea…3c96backed No | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 68c | 93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…d97fbacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3df…e928backed Yes | 45c | 89.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…8410backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 64c | 72.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…59a9backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…7f60backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…bb90backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…878cbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 39c | 63.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…2ff0backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1a2dbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…57eabacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…4e27backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…34c2backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…7ffbbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…47e9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…216bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 34c | 47.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 52c | 45.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…7f7cbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…d162backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7882…8553backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 47c | 42.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…4414backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…81abbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…2842backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…0c27backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…471cbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…70bcbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…6122backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…41a2backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…605abacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…9323backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…6491backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 40c | 26.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…c295backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…4e21backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 47c | 21.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…1125backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…6a58backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…b3f8backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.