Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e2d46d2eb85dade9b6de460e80ff07df2254fac4ea112fc782be743eade2b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 58c | 473.52$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 270.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 11c | 250.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 61c | 242.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 228.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 58c | 218.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 213.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 206.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 192.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 171.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 7c | 165.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 158.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 58c | 143.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6398…0485backed No | 59c | 119.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 95.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 89.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 87.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 83.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 83.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…7750backed No | 58c | 70.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 22c | 54.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 53.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 48.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 41.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 42c | 38.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 39c | 27.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 59c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.