Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94994bd08d3cbbbc5cc67cb5b27e846c342a8f0cefc6721b32af7a39577d42d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 651.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 248.55$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 244.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 207.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 176.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 169.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 34c | 163.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 161.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 150.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 141.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 141.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 128.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 72c | 126.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 123.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 94.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 94.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 79.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 71c | 69.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 72c | 69.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 68.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 55.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 50.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 44.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 67c | 37.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 29.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 65c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 73c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…5609backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.