Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16eb813686530d5dd2ba2bc0f4b76d18b8852573440bbb2cd5ce7bbfef924072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 3,018$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 77c | 726.62$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 643.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 564.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 450.27$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 13c | 389.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 380$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 353.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 337.19$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 294$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 291.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 214.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 177.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 14c | 147.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 138.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 15c | 128.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 8c | 125.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 124.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 99.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 98.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 21c | 81.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 18c | 62.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 51.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 44.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 39.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.