Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7cf352a6ba6a763213e049d02c366ae122d7471cefd3a0887ab982965b57da8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 3,229$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 1,301$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 957.39$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 26c | 831.49$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.26 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 812.87$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 720.84$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.15 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 592.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 574.93$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 413.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 362.11$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 47c | 339.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 334.67$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 66c | 286.36$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 241.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 237$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 223$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 212.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 40c | 195.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 42c | 182.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 182$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 181.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 164.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 149.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 127.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 8c | 127.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 62c | 126.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 110.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 65c | 103.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 92.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 90.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 90.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 86.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 80.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 64.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 63c | 60.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 52.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 63c | 51.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 48.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 46.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 37c | 46.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 43.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 37c | 42.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 42.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 55c | 39.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 38.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 60c | 38.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 38.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 37.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 67c | 36.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 35.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 42c | 32.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 30.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 58c | 30.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 30.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…9771backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 24.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…f9f2backed No | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 21.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…0e11backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…4ccbbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.