TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c3,229$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.741,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c1,301$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.622,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes42c957.39$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.291,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes26c831.49$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.2633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c812.87$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.954,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No60c720.84$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.151,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c592.58$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No60c574.93$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.961,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c413.13$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.971,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c362.11$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.725,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d84…03adbacked Yes47c339.88$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.051741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c334.67$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes66c286.36$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.362,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c241.02$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c237$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No61c223$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.382,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes38c212.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.094,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes40c195.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4144448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes42c182.81$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.814141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c182$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.469,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c181.33$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c164.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.784,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c149.29$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.441,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No49c127.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.941,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f7…b1a8backed No8c127.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66566.2%43 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5259…fc71backed No62c126.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.911353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No59c110.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No65c103.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.535344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.213351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No64c99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes64c94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.881,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c92.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.13,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No60c90.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No60c90.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No67c90$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c86.84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes66c80.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.443,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No61c64.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6326256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c64.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.974,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed No63c60.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.344141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes27c52.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes63c51.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.941,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9364859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed No68c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.991540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c48.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No52c46.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47fc…c32abacked Yes37c46.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.492725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c43.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No40c43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes37c42.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No29c42.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No55c39.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7915529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c38.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked No60c38.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.944143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c38.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c37.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.43,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed No67c36.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.573959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c35.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.564,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes45c33.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4120750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes42c32.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.049545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No62c32.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c30.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.544,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…3de3backed No58c30.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.714261.9%26 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No61c30.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.995343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No64c27.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6b…9771backed No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…647bbacked Yes70c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.074965.3%32 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6780050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No62c24.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4222064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No46c24.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No76c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2443959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2c…f9f2backed No64c21.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No59c21.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No60c20.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff12…0e11backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd2…c545backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.22751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1423958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5e…4ccbbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad5e…56ffbacked No58c18.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.