Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x173339dcd054eba82c9c889f1f682ecc676c89580760436aa8629e169e0725d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 1,104$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.68 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 401.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 12c | 317.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 231.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 215$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 208.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 18c | 196.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 74c | 195.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 29c | 176.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 79c | 148.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 148.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 23c | 140.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 134.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 22c | 114.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 114.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 108.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 19c | 104.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 33c | 99.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 80c | 96.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 77c | 91.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 86.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 25c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 77.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 40c | 72.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 65.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 60.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…0091backed No | 66c | 53.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes | 31c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 25c | 40.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 73c | 39.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 73c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 28.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 27.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.