Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c72a83bb58a268548c4ee435198e27d9ecb4c2a2ca2f46d70166041a6ac8dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 358.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.05 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 296.9$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.77 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 233.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 164.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 138.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 22c | 137.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 130.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 117.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 112.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 85.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 83.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 26c | 75.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 69.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 69.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 68.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 47.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 47.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 42.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed Yes | 26c | 41.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 31.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 78c | 29.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 73c | 28.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 76c | 26.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.