Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1740d5fbe098ed27c18c21206fda69b19a2eff83b18b1ee2a2c4db83d0f33a97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb692…a746backed Yes | 38c | 2,568$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…e34dbacked No | 62c | 1,312$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 1,291$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…45ecbacked No | 62c | 1,256$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 13c | 666.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.57 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 79c | 427.51$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 23c | 409.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 310.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.57 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 6c | 308.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 277.38$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…f872backed No | 10c | 263.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 229.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…f431backed Yes | 47c | 213.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 25c | 201.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.74 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 16c | 200.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 79c | 190.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 51c | 175.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 39c | 158.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 75c | 149.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 129.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 119.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 113.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 26c | 101.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 64c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 17c | 80.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 33c | 79.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 29c | 75.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 74.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 79c | 72.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 79c | 71.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 77c | 64.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 17c | 64.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 20c | 62.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 60.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 55.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 19c | 54.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 51.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 49.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 60c | 49.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 26c | 45.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 33c | 40.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 47c | 35.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 46c | 34.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 48c | 33.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 32.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…b123backed No | 64c | 28.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 27.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…9ebbbacked No | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 73c | 25.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…0a86backed Yes | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 70c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2188…50bcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 19.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…d11bbacked No | 70c | 18.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.