Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6ace8d404daad9d7511b12868f89a24c803d14db0946818abae90f3427a66d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 1c | 16,263$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 10c | 8,194$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 2c | 6,596$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 1c | 4,828$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 3,240$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,222$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 3,149$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 1,221$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 53c | 978.65$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.19 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 815.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 73c | 548.17$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.13 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 522.1$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 69c | 386.89$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 18c | 353$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.46 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 11c | 312.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 193.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 182.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 175.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 175.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 142.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 131.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 67c | 129$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 120.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 118.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 24c | 118.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 117.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 36c | 115.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 100.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 29c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 94.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 28c | 85.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 34c | 84.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 61c | 75.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 73.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 72.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 38c | 68.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 59c | 63.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 61.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 27c | 60.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 42c | 58.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 23c | 57.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…cd49backed Yes | 31c | 55.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 63c | 52.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 31c | 50.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 43c | 49.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 24c | 45.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 41c | 42.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 37c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 39.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked Yes | 28c | 39.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 36.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked Yes | 62c | 34.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 69c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 61c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked No | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 72c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.