Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c5f241f2c5ef48c0aa88b7e5b215ea728ee59427d21d84677562d5b79e4ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 1,256$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,093$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 809.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 2c | 649.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 347.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 309.03$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 18c | 195$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 30c | 168.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 162.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 158.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 153.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 122.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 118.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 76c | 108.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 21c | 99.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 18c | 99.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 22c | 85.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 18c | 83.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 22c | 81.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 80c | 75.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 75.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 18c | 67.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 63.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…cd49backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 28c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 32c | 52.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 50.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 80c | 46.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 27c | 44.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 44.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 74c | 25.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 72c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…6775backed No | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…c42abacked No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.