Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Muchova vs. Haddad Maia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1742b8774491aa5241c9ecba412320c1ea76433c8e884b8e3fa95249408d68ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Muchova, Haddad Maia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Haddad Maia | 14c | 30,101$4,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,118.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Haddad Maia | 28c | 7,636$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Muchova | 71c | 7,327$5,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.16 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Haddad Maia | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Haddad Maia | 26c | 4,573$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Haddad Maia | 29c | 4,057$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.78 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Muchova | 79c | 4,017$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Haddad Maia | 12c | 3,744$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Haddad Maia | 29c | 3,562$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Muchova | 70c | 2,372$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.86 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Haddad Maia | 27c | 2,328$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.52 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Muchova | 72c | 2,160$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Muchova | 73c | 1,987$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Haddad Maia | 7c | 1,769$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Haddad Maia | 7c | 1,510$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…14efbacked Haddad Maia | 20c | 1,158$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Haddad Maia | 7c | 1,079$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Haddad Maia | 22c | 850$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Muchova | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Muchova | 75c | 372.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Haddad Maia | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Muchova | 73c | 278.63$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Haddad Maia | 31c | 253.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…dd3bbacked Muchova | 70c | 242.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Haddad Maia | 26c | 221.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…e7bdbacked Haddad Maia | 9c | 211.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…7d78backed Haddad Maia | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Haddad Maia | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Haddad Maia | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Haddad Maia | 10c | 166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Muchova | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed Muchova | 74c | 109.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked Haddad Maia | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…0a56backed Haddad Maia | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Haddad Maia | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Haddad Maia | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…80b3backed Haddad Maia | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Muchova | 70c | 33.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Muchova | 71c | 29.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…46a8backed Muchova | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.