Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176dbe539feca66b2b4a7e7421504a344c84c41a3b6eeafd6bd03ab520f8f3c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 360.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 236.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 22c | 212.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 70c | 206.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 174.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 76c | 120.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 114.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 14c | 100.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 18c | 93.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 75c | 93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 25c | 92.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb2…c55cbacked No | 16c | 85.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 78c | 77.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 67c | 71.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 59c | 67.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 76c | 54.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 24c | 51.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 78c | 48.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 23c | 45.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 25c | 44.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 44.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…049fbacked Yes | 79c | 37.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 64c | 30.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 29.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b78…324ebacked No | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 62c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 48c | 24.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 78c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…4d16backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.