Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17945995d08c9d19f529b1f00bb0784e0141f391d5d3ed96d7833e564ed9b9b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Metzof FC Lorient, FC Metz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Metz | 73c | 2,113$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.55 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Lorient | 25c | 1,369$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked FC Lorient | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Lorient | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed FC Lorient | 23c | 199$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked FC Lorient | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed FC Lorient | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed FC Lorient | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked FC Metz | 71c | 46.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ce…04d5backed FC Lorient | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed FC Lorient | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed FC Metz | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed FC Metz | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed FC Metz | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked FC Metz | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…d1bcbacked FC Metz | 72c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…3c39backed FC Metz | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed FC Metz | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed FC Metz | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked FC Metz | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…0eedbacked FC Metz | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…66e6backed FC Metz | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked FC Metz | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed FC Metz | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed FC Metz | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.