Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72ea40eac3044cbc1b2ada28fa346ac937c271a7bfbf0cbd867389a16dea5bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 50c | 18,084$9,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,042.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 6,050$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.61 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 39c | 2,697$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.89 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 1,945$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 50c | 1,206$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.87 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 51c | 996$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.96 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over | 53c | 550.94$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Over | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 505.5$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.97 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Under | 68c | 400$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 336.83$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 51c | 270.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 31c | 237$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 219$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 52c | 132$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 29c | 65.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 61c | 62.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Over | 52c | 57.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Over | 47c | 55.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 24c | 45.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 42.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 52c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Under | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.