Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca09eb39de252fe8a01c5c59e9dbc84cbd06587bb550d0d9510bbe4f13e4151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 30,413$19,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,648.38 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 35c | 30,118$10,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,541.3 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 77c | 2,350$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 2,006$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.85 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 66c | 677.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 546.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 75c | 306.67$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 259.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…bc6fbacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 36c | 54.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 24c | 50.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Under | 25c | 43.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 64c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.