Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce25de8ede597e7cf45ff077aeaae02c1fd8cd694eedcf1c2f599c302d660c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 10,398$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.65 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,522$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.86 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 1,244$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 1,078$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…7d02backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 99.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Over | 29c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Over | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Over | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Under | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Under | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Under | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Under | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Under | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Under | 80c | 23.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Under | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Over | 79c | 20.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Under | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 69c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.