South American Leagues · resolved market
Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b7280ee9e34389c477f917866e47c83e65115c348dda3f2f701ab619e44ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 4,011$2,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 2,013$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.9 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 1,489$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 14c | 1,249$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 15c | 1,154$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.17 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Over | 28c | 1,150$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 36c | 787.25$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 663.76$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.41 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 580.84$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.35 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 60c | 321.97$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…7e22backed Under | 63c | 317.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…4f5abacked Over | 36c | 274.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 40c | 225.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 166.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 61c | 163.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Over | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 125.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 40c | 124$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 41c | 122.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 58c | 104$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 40c | 97.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 68c | 47.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 38c | 39.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…bc59backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Under | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Under | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Under | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Under | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Under | 64c | 27.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Under | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…8946backed Over | 44c | 25.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Under | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 66c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Under | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Under | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.