Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17cac79861c7e5eae503c3add33c53fca8f7b650a1904fdcb67217bf95d95efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 522.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 212.92$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 198.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 164.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 69c | 140.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 131.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 130.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 22c | 123.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 103.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 98.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 59c | 92.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 75c | 82.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 57c | 67.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 56.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 76c | 56.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 54.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 53.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 50.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 49.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 49.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 46.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 40c | 44.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 43.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 35.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 58c | 29.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 57c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 24.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 58c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.