Earnings · resolved market
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17dce37ec2ca13843e676a8f70bd4e3c575a42831811f16088b45f5999d8bb4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 75c | 1,229$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 31c | 994.87$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.67 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 20c | 256.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 16c | 185.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…2c8ebacked Yes | 21c | 154.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 53c | 129.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…9faabacked No | 50c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 80c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 102.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 18c | 97.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 33c | 66.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 63.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 47.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 49c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…61e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.