WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e5d6ab0e66a2c50993060fd60d9fa73771bad0c738d7634f35e13f67fcaa08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 16,916$8,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,820.5 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 4,343$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.79 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.84 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 3,957$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.64 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 3,630$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.68 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,707$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.5 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,531$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.57 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,340$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.36 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 1,333$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.67 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 1,203$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 831$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.12 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…537abacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 681.03$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 588.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 556.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 500.71$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.71 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 447.47$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.21 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…1aecbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 314.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 268$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 144$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 136.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 85.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 66.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 63.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 48.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 45.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 26.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 170.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 171.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.