WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429c00bee1350de202e06adab5550796ec242893b5ce85c002d30b81edf794f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 22,801$12,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,967.19 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f5…4e90backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 7,852$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 27c | 7,455$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.56 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 6,399$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,584.11 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 4,914$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury | 25c | 4,335$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.86 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 3,313$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.69 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 3,284$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.12 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 2,048$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.36 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,797$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.53 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 1,700$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.41 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,465$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 1,326$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.65 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Phoenix Mercury | 20c | 999.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 970.01$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.41 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 954.15$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.15 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 842.98$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 814.45$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 799.99$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury | 25c | 795$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 744.28$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.44 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 624.87$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.77 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 538.43$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Las Vegas Aces | 42c | 499.62$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 472.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury | 27c | 381.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 320.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.39 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 193.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 172.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 172.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 133$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 126$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 107.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Phoenix Mercury | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 99.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 95.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 35c | 94.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 73.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 70.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 65.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 50.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 45.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Phoenix Mercury | 33c | 41.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 38.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 25.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 170.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 171.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.