WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30fe4dd759f3ca456beb479391058f1409c5fdd9664ad08da8755c2dedbb3b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Under | 79c | 317.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 42c | 235.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 20c | 195.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 141.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 41c | 111.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe456…e5a4backed Under | 62c | 81.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 38c | 78.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 70.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 68.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Under | 62c | 48.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…a82cbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Over | 39c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Under | 59c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 170.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 171.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.