Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x181296827655fb83167a9ad92df3b8def33bfc660515e823cc847cc76f187a03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 5c | 527.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 499.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 449.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 214.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 18c | 210.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 202.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…9650backed Yes | 10c | 141.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 139.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 121.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 117.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 114.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 111.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 110.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 103.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 98.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 78c | 82.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 79c | 73.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 70.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 69.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 68.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 61.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 19c | 59.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 56.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 56.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 55.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 52.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 51.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 36c | 47.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 46.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 44.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 44.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 26c | 41.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 46c | 40.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 34.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 31.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 31.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 31.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 48c | 25.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 45c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 19.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 19.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 63c | 19.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 60c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.