Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8483bab1d6f431c8369a05e0dd6167ba0d150fcea9e86abb460bb6f7b624a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 481.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 75c | 442.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 401.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 399.36$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 275.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 268.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 245.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 193.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 171.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 26c | 165$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 156.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 154.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 154.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 111.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 104.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 100.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 78c | 86.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 82.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked No | 64c | 80.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 72.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 70.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 69c | 61.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 48.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 46.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 46.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 42.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 40.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 38.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 29.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 68c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce46…a9afbacked No | 68c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 67c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 68c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.